Arizona U.S. Senate Election May Be Decided By Trump Factor

Little over one month remains until the November elections; all sights are on four crucial contests that might determine who controls the U.S. Senate in 2023.

Sen. Mark Kelly To Fight Republicans

Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat, is attempting to hold off Republican political novice Blake Masters in Arizona, among the four “toss-up” seats. Politically, the two could not be farther apart.

Kelly describes himself as a senator who is open to working across party lines; however, according to FiveThirtyEight, his voting history reveals he is really somewhat progressive.

In contrast, Masters won Donald Trump’s support during the primaries. He hasn’t held back when expressing his belief “the swamp” poses a danger to the United States.

Kelly and Masters were practically close in a September Emerson College survey; Kelly garnered 47% of the vote, while Masters received 45%.

The polling results are similar to the Arizona Senate election in 2020. Veteran Martha McSally, a fervent Trump admirer, fell to Kelly. This was McSally’s second defeat to a Democrat.

The first defeat came in 2018 when Democrat Kyrsten Sinema was victorious in turning Jeff Flake’s retiring Republican seat from red to blue. Additionally, Arizona elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1988.

Thus, the key question is whether a fervent Trump fan with a combative character and candidacy can prevail in a state that is turning more “purple,” as suggested by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

During what was regarded as a huge upset at the time, Sinema defeated McSally in 2018.

Whereas in an unexpected turn, Republican Governor of Arizona Ducey elevated McSally to the US Senate, following the death of Sen. John McCain. In a special election in 2020 to fill McCain’s remaining two years in office, McSally ran against Kelly.

McSally’s Campaign Called It a Disaster

Arizona Central dubbed McSally’s campaign as the most disastrous ever.

It claimed the reason she lost was a failure to appeal to moderates. Rather, Kelly was a “mini-Trump” who had people “rush” to him, which is the key point of McConnell’s current warning.

Kelly won among Independents by a margin of 45 percent to 41 percent in 2020, according to Emerson College Polling, which had Kelly at 46 percent and McSally at 45 percent.

Furthermore, respondents listed the economy as their top anxiety (33 percent), followed by healthcare (18%) and immigration (13 percent).

According to Emerson College’s latest election survey, the economy is once again the top worry (36 percent). In comparison, abortion access and immigration matched for second place (16 percent), and healthcare slid to third (11 percent).

Emerson College Polling had Trump at 44 percent and President Biden at 41 percent in a theoretical contest. Two percent were unsure and 13% stated they would vote for “somebody else.”

The error margin was 3.85 percentage points, plus or minus.