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Could a Russian Invasion Happen as Soon as February?

As the US seeks an open UN Security Council forum to talk about the problem, President Biden informed Ukraine’s leader there is a “clear probability” Russia could start a war on Ukraine in February, according to the White House.

The Russians Have Given Up Talks

The revelation comes as the Kremlin struck a gloomy tone on Thursday, saying there was “no reason for confidence” in resolving the situation. This came after the US rejected Russia’s primary requests for the second time this week.


Russian authorities said that conversation to resolve the crisis was still possible. Biden issued another dire warning, amid growing fears that Russian President Putin will approve a new invasion of Ukrainian territory in the not-too-distant future.

Biden’s statements to Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky in a telephone conversation, according to the White House, heightened concerns authorities have been raising for some time.

“President Biden stated Putin could attack Ukraine in February,” according to White House National Security Advisor spokesperson Emily Horne.

“He openly declared this, and we have been worrying about it for weeks.”

The US representative towards the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said Thursday morning the Biden government wants to talk about Russia’s “dangerous behavior” against Ukraine.

“Russia is committing other destabilizing measures in Ukraine, presenting a clear threat to world peace and security, as well as the UN Charter,” she warned.

“This is not the time to wait and see what happens. We need the council’s entire focus right now, and we’re looking forward to a focused and deliberate conversation on Monday.”

After Moscow placed tens of large numbers of troops on its frontier with Ukraine, ties between Russia and the United States have worsened.

The Kremlin rejected any preparations to attack, but it did demand broad security guarantees last month, notably pledges that Ukraine will never be included in the US-led NATO defense pact.

Russia Must Back Off

The US and Western coalition, as anticipated, forcefully rejected any compromises on Moscow’s main concerns on Wednesday, stressing that ally troop and military hardware deployment in Eastern Europe remain non-negotiable.

The US did point to areas where some of Russia’s troubles could be managed, perhaps paving the way for de-escalation.

On Thursday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists the US answer – and a comparable one from NATO – offered “little room for optimism,” but “there are always opportunities for maintaining a conversation; it’s in both our and the Americans’ concerns.”

Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov also alluded at a dialogue beginning, stating the US answer contained certain aspects that could lead to “the start of a meaningful discussion on secondary problems.”

All attention is on Putin now, who will determine how Russia will respond, amid suspicions Europe may be thrown into another conflict. If the West does not comply with the requests, he has threatened unspecified “military-technical actions.”

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