Polarization Could Define the Midterm Election, According to Fox News Polls

Voters’ biggest worries are inflation and crime. Currently, the economic state and the president are seen unfavorably. Therefore, it does seem safe to assume the incumbent party will suffer at the polls.

The most recent Fox News poll reveals the parties are equally matched in size, energy, and allegiance. Political divisiveness and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade may save Democrats from suffering a crushing defeat in November.

Republicans Favored on Crime

Republicans and Democrats each make up approximately the same proportion of voters, 41% and 42% respectively.

According to Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-directs the Fox News survey with Democrat Chris Anderson, “even a small Democratic advantage in the polling average is still expected to generate moderate Republican seat gains in the House.”

Based on an algorithm using the generic ballot from previous midterm elections, the Fox News model forecasts how many House seats will change parties.

Voters with college degrees, anyone under 45, and Hispanics like the Democratic candidate. White voters without a college education, those 65 and older, and men favor the Republicans.

On the issues, Republicans appear to be in the lead. Out of a total of 12, voters’ top two worries are inflation (89%) and crime (79%). They have more faith in Republicans to address them than in Democrats.

On the question of bringing the nation together, where Democrats were preferred by nine points in January, no party has an advantage.


The Democrats’ economic environment is dire. More than two-thirds of people are dissatisfied with how things are progressing in the nation (69%).

Large majorities think the economic situation is bad and getting worse (both 78% and 73%). Only 15% of families claim their financial situation improved since two years ago. 71% have reduced their spending to cover basic expenses.

Notably, majorities of Independents feel their situation has worsened (52%) and the economy is growing worse (87%).

Democrats Favored on Abortion

Regarding inflation, 29% of voters approve of Biden, while 67% disapprove. That represents a net loss of 38 points.

In fact, Biden scored poorly on every metric used, including border control (-24 points), Ukraine (-8 points), the environment (-9 points), energy (-10 points), foreign relations (-13 points), crime (-21 points), and the economy (-27).

Biden’s total approval rating has risen to 46%, his highest level since 47% in January. September saw a 43% increase.

The increase is primarily due to the rise in voters under 45, voters with college degrees, and voters living in metropolitan areas. Democrats now support him 87% of the time, an increase of four points since September and nine points since July.

The study, which was released on Sunday, reveals the current Congress has the same poor approval rating as in 2021 (26% against 67%).

Which parties are the most divisive? Republicans claim to love America and genuinely desire what is best for the nation, according to only 18% of Democrats.

This article appeared in Conservative Cardinal and has been published here with permission.