In the Trafalgar Group survey, which was held from September 26 to September 30, Hassan received 48.2 percent of the vote; Bolduc received 45 percent and 3.2% of the participants were indecisive.
Hassan Has Slight Lead
Although Bolduc secured the Republican primary in September, the survey is the first in the competitive state to suggest a close race.
Despite national Republicans spending huge amounts of money to support Bolduc’s opposition and national Democrats wasting millions to undermine Bolduc’s adversary, Bolduc, a former brigadier general, won the GOP primary.
He won by around two points over his closest rival.
We start in New Hampshire and Nevada tomorrow, finishing up those surveys today to be ready.
I think we're just going to be the second polling firm to be in NH after @trafalgar_group so that should be interesting.— Big Penguin Polling (@BigPenguinPolls) October 4, 2022
The calculations behind both parties’ efforts appeared to be that Bolduc, a somewhat more right-wing and more anti-establishment candidate in the election, had a lower likelihood of defeating Hassan than his top challenger.
The survey follows the publication of an email that claimed Hassan’s campaign has entered crisis mode last week.
The “national atmosphere has not suddenly transformed for Democrats,” according to the message that Hassan’s team sent to supporters. Polls that showed her leading were inaccurate.
The email stated, “Our own polling data reveals that Don Bolduc is quickly strengthening the Republican base and is rapidly gaining ground against Senator Hassan.”
🚨 NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL By Trafalgar
SENATE
(D) Maggie Hassan 48% (+3)
(R) Don Bolduc 45%⦿ September 26-30
⦿ 1,083 likely voters
⦿ ±2.9% margin of errorhttps://t.co/9LIHrXNPjQ pic.twitter.com/8ZTGRWPwmI— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 4, 2022
According to the message, not a single poll in the adjacent state of Maine in 2020 projected that Republican nominee Sen. Susan Collins would defeat her Democratic opponent.
The email warned recipients to be wary of any public polling that showed Senator Hassan as the clear frontrunner beyond the error margin because Maine and New Hampshire are comparable.
Hassan, a vulnerable incumbent with strong financial support, has made an effort to set herself apart from President Joe Biden, who is not generally liked.
For example, Hassan has voiced disapproval of the Biden administration’s efforts to erase the student loans of millions of Americans and criticized the lack of oversight the administration has had over the southern border.
Nevertheless, a FiveThirtyEight examination of Hassan’s voting history reveals the New Hampshire Democrat has consistently voted upwards of 96 percent in favor of Joe Biden’s policies.
Bolduc Expects Victory
On media platforms on Tuesday, Bolduc tweeted the Trafalgar poll findings and predicted a “huge VICTORY” in the Granite State, come November. Bolduc has frequently criticized Hassan for being a “professional politician” and has called him out for it.
In response to the poll findings, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) expressed his opinion, stating that Bolduc will win, thanks to inflation levels not seen in four decades.
Gingrich predicted that Bolduc will beat Hassan once “the expense of heating oil strikes home and the expense of Biden’s policies to 401ks hit seniors.”
The margin of error for the Trafalgar survey, which surveyed 1,081 probable general election voters, was plus or minus 2.9%.
