Tropical Storm Rafael is gaining strength over the Caribbean, posing as a potential threat. The NHC continues to monitor Rafael as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The storm could impact Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Florida, and New Orleans.
Tropical Storm Rafael’s Path and Potential Impact
Rafael emerged over the Caribbean Sea on November 4, 2024, stirring concerns as it headed towards the Gulf of Mexico. Current trajectories suggest Rafael could develop into a hurricane as it approaches Cuba, showcasing a rare event of a November hurricane affecting this region. Historically, hurricanes in November are uncommon compared to the peak season of September.
“Hurricanes in November do happen, but they are far less common than in peak season months,” said Alex DesRosiers. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the system, with an 80% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours and potentially evolving into Tropical Storm Rafael.
🌀Not a whole lot of change with the 9pm update with Tropical Storm Rafael. Uncertainty in the track still remains high beyond midweek, but conditions will become very unfavorable by the end of the week and into the weekend for the storm. pic.twitter.com/EZ6tC7wpyb
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) November 5, 2024
Preparedness and Warnings
As Rafael moves across the Caribbean, alerts have been issued for areas including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, where heavy rains may lead to flooding and storm surges. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is set to investigate the system further as it gathers momentum. AccuWeather forecasts suggest possible impacts on the U.S., but the specifics are yet unclear.
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” expressed Larry Kelly, urging cautious optimism amidst uncertainties.
Warm sea-surface temperatures and low wind shear could allow Rafael to intensify, though its exact path remains fluid. Coastal communities are urged to stay alert and prepare for potential adverse conditions.
Tropical Storm #Rafael Advisory 5: 4:00 PM EST Monday November 4, 2024
Full forecast details at: https://t.co/TeLLMFmCkN pic.twitter.com/lGCRy6xF6o
— National Hurricane Center (@NWSNHC) November 4, 2024
Looking Ahead: Potential Effects on U.S. Shores
AccuWeather and other meteorological agencies indicate that Rafael could affect Jamaica, Cuba, and areas of the southeastern U.S., including New Orleans. The Gulf Coast may experience rainfall and strong winds if Rafael stays on its current trajectory, with potential landfall toward the weekend.
“Tropical Storm Rafael is on track to hit the southern tip of Louisiana by Saturday as it continues to gather strength en route to the Gulf of Mexico, and could become a hurricane by the time it hits Cuba,” stated Metrologist Payton Malone.
With its potential to evolve into a significant weather event, Rafael underscores the need for vigilance even in an unusually active late hurricane season. As the atmosphere prepares to welcome winter, this storm is a sobering reminder of nature’s unpredictability.
